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Publication Date: November 4th, 2025

A Hudson Common Sense & Hudson Wail Collaboration: Put your prediction and your % where your mouth is.

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UPDATE 11/13: The Winner of our Prediction Competition is Stan Webb from the 1st Ward, who predicted that Joe Ferris would win with a 2.69% margin.

Fun fact, Stan is not only a gifted election predictor but he also worked as an editor in Hollywood on the Nightmare Before Christmas, James and the Giant Peach, Antz, and other animated films. Congratulations Stan! We look forward to handing you your Meat Hook turkey, as well as making an equivalent donation to a local food pantry of your choosing.

Top 10 closest forecasts to the actual 2.13-point Ferris margin

The Common Box / In Brief:

Win 1 Turkey, Give a 2nd to a Family in Need

1. Go to this form and answer the 5 simple questions, specifically predicting a winner, and the winning margin:

https://forms.gle/xu9xysAn6Q2PZLnQA

2. On the form say if you want to be anonymous or named, or use your Gossips or Facebook username/handle. Fill out all 5 questions and click “Submit”. You will get a confirmation email as receipt. We keep receipts. We will never publish your email address - ever!

3. At 6pm we will publish the top 5 predictors (who consented), and who the town thinks will be mayor, and within 24 hours who won the Turkey.

4. The overall winner can also assign a 2nd turkey, or $250 in food credit to the Salvation Army, or a local family in need.

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Think you’ve got your finger on the pulse of Hudson politics? Confident you know how the vote will split among Joe, Kamal and Lloyd? We’re inviting you to make your prediction, and the winner takes home a grade A Thanksgiving turkey from the Meat Hook.

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Put Your % Where Your Mouth Is

Hudsonians love to whisper about who’s up, who’s down, and who’s doomed. Predictions fly across coffee counters and barstools, but no one ever writes them down, or remembers who was right when the votes are counted. Council members sometimes proclaim with total confidence that “the parking meters will pay for themselves,” or “my ward supports this resolution on a foreign war.” But then the Parking Meters fail and no one celebrates the peace treaty.

When we never stake a claim, or write down what we actually think, we invite the shape shifters. The whisper networks. The endless calls and coffee meetings. Better to be open, clear, and accountable.

So we’re fixing that. This time, you don’t just get to gossip about the race between Joe, Kamal, and Lloyd; you get to call your shot. Put your numbers (prediciton) where your hunch is, and the closest forecast wins a Thanksgiving turkey, for yourself and a family in need. Simple, civic, and maybe a little humbling…

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Don’t forget to cast your vote before 6pm tonight! All the details here:

https://elections.columbiacountyny.com/

[Next] Election ‘27: Voter Guide

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FYI: See Didi Barrett’s List of Food Pantries who need help during this holiday season and uncertain federal funding period.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DQmPORODfD3/?img_index=1

📋 Enter the competition here:

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https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1XLV5dZtlkn5oOMk_BoeoTCGAi-iYGfJ_N7Wa5rE2lzQ/edit?ts=69097408

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Or put this URL into your browser or phone:

[<https://forms.gle/xu9xysAn6Q2PZLnQA>](<https://forms.gle/xu9xysAn6Q2PZLnQA>)

The Rules of The Game

Submit your predictions of 1) who will win the Mayoral race, and 2) by what percentage margin, using the Google Form:

https://forms.gle/xu9xysAn6Q2PZLnQA

• You can submit anonymously (we’ll count your entry but won’t publish your name) or give consent to have your name/entry published in our post‐contest round-up. You can use a pseudonym.
• Deadline: Today, Tuesday, November 4th at 6pm ET. The prediction closest to the actual official result wins the turkey. In case of a tie, there can be up to 3 winners.
• By entering you confirm you are a Hudson (NY) resident, 18 or older, and that you’re entering freely without payment or purchase. Max and Kristen Zanotelli (can someone please send this to her) from Greenport and Quintin from Albany can still enter, if they are in the top 5 we will publish their names and honor their expertise, but they cannot win the turkey, because they cannot vote in Hudson.
• Prize value: One phenomenal Thanksgiving Turkey from The Meat Hook.
• The winner will be notified by email and announced in a follow-up post.
• 🌾 Update: If you are a vegetarian we will give you the cash equivalent at Little Rico or your favourite vegetarian spot in town. (We support local businesses.)

We’ll publish anonymous aggregated results and, for those who consent, the names and entries of the top 5 winners, and the Turkey Shoot winner. Your contact information will not be shared beyond the promotion. We are European, GDPR style.

Good luck, and may your forecast be sharper than election night popcorn.

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About the Contest (Yes, We Checked)

Before you clutch your pearls, or your law degree, this is legal. Under New York General Business Law § 369-E, a promotion only counts as an illegal lottery if it combines three things: prize, chance, and consideration (meaning you pay to play). We’ve eliminated the last two.

There’s no entry fee or purchase, and winning depends on skill: the accuracy of your prediction of the Hudson vote split among Joe, Kamal, and Lloyd, not luck. The prize, a single grade-A Thanksgiving turkey from The Meat Hook, sits comfortably below the state’s $5,000 threshold for registration and bonding.

Translation: this is a harmless civic parlor game, not a sweepstakes scandal. You email us your guess, we log it, the closest number wins the bird. That’s the whole story…and a surprisingly educational journey through New York promotional law.

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🦃 What is a Turkey Shoot?

A “turkey shoot” refers to an easy, one-sided contest where victory is almost certain for one side. The term originated from early American hunting contests in which shooters fired at penned or slow-moving turkeys at close range, requiring little skill. It entered military slang during the Second World War to describe lopsided battles, notably the 1944 “Great Marianas Turkey Shoot,” when U.S. fighter pilots destroyed hundreds of Japanese planes with minimal losses. Today it is used metaphorically to describe any situation where one party holds an overwhelming advantage, political, economic, or otherwise.

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Last edited/updated:

November 4th, 2025

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Agreement is welcome. Disagreement is vital. Nuance is rare and therefore prized. Common Sense exists to sharpen arguments, not settle them. Submit your Guest Op-Ed HERE.

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